Eda and jockey Juan Hernandez, right, outleg Chismosa and Tiago Pereira, outside, and Elm Drive wwith Ramon Vazquez, inside, to win the Great Lady M Stakes on July 4, 2023, at Los Alamitos Race Course in Cypress. You bet on a horse to win, satisfied with the, let’s say, 4-1 odds showing on the tote board. Just before the race, the odds tumble to, maybe, 2-1. If you win, you’re disappointed with the smaller-than-hoped-for payoff. If you lose, you regret the wager even more than usual.
“This is about that 8-1 shot going to the gate that goes off at 3-1,” said Mark Ratzky, the Los Al employee credited with bringing the new feature to Southern California tracks. “That’s what pisses people off.”For nearly a century, American horseplayers didn’t mind the way odds shifted in the minutes before post time, because this was the nature of the parimutuel system and the late changes rarely were dramatic.
Horseshoe Indianapolis and Tampa Bay Downs were the first tracks to display them, using projected odds from the Daily Racing Form’s online past-performance platform. Emerald Downs, in Auburn, Wash., is showing what it calls a “dynamic morning line” during its 2024 season. Los Alamitos debuted what it calls “In Play Probable Closing Odds” at its short thoroughbred season in December.
“When Mark Ratzky shared his concept with me prior to implementation, I was all for the idea,” Ike said. “Unfortunately, in order to have any clue what the final odds on a horse will be, you have to check the daily double and pick 3 will-pays to make a projection on the win price. Mark has made it even more accurate with the algorithm.”
“It’s unfortunate there is even a need for this,” Ike said of projected odds. “It should be an embarrassment to Southern California racing and the industry in general that the late odds changes are so dramatic and prevalent that there would be a market for this graphic. But that’s where we’re at, and it’s the reason I won’t make a win bet on SoCal tracks anymore.”
Nothing about projected odds tells you who’ll win a race, or how to bet. But they usually will forecast final odds more accurately than a traditional morning line written by a track handicapper 48 hours or more before a day’s races, and this knowledge can help you decide which horses are worth a gamble.
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