Hong Kong devolving into economic monoculture

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Hong Kong devolving into economic monoculture, says petesweeneypro:

and others are boosting their ranks in Hong Kong, per a Reuters report this week. Elsewhere, the news is glum. The city’s population shrank by 50,000 last year. One in ten workers is unemployed or underemployed. A recent member survey conducted by the local American Chamber of Commerce found that 42% of respondents are either considering or planning to leave.

Outflows will be bifurcated. It makes sense for multinational companies with big mainland businesses, such as Timberland-owner VF , to save money by abandoning Hong Kong and building up in Shanghai instead. Similarly, technology and media firms are wisely evacuating servers and staff to Singapore to escape Beijing’s repressive National Security Law. The broad dynamics hold true for Chinese outfits too.

That bodes ill for the all-important property market. Tourism is suffering, which helped prompt a 24% decline in retail sales last year. Beijing has turned the nearby province of Hainan into a duty-free luxury shopping zone that will compete directly with Hong Kong. In terms of trade, Victoria Harbour keeps losing volume to Shanghai and Singapore.

Finance alone cannot make up the difference. The industry contributes around 20% of Hong Kong’s $311 billion GDP, but accounts for 10% of the workforce. Sustained emigration will tank demand for housing and office space. Overdependence on banking, trading and insurance will lead to rapid stagnation, not the renaissance Beijing promises.

 

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