Hollywood Banks on ‘Star Wars,’ ‘Jumanji 2’ for Big Box Office Finish

When exhibitor Jeff Logan talks to friends and customers about upcoming movies, he’s sometimes greeted with a shrug.

Year to date, ticket sales are down 5.5%, with blockbusters including “Avengers: Endgame” and “Joker” not successful enough to paper over flops such as “Men in Black: International” and “Terminator: Dark Fate.” But Logan and other theater owners believe that help is on the way. In the coming months, “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle,” “Frozen 2” and “” are all scheduled to hit movie screens — a trio of likely hits perfectly timed to close out the year on a high note.

“As with every year, there is plenty of competition, but this year it feels like a good mix of offerings where audiences will take the opportunity to see more than one thing during the holidays,” says Cathleen Taff,When 2020 rolls around, analysts be­­lieve the domestic box office will top out at $11.5 billion, a more than 3% drop from the $11.9 billion record set in 2018 but an impressive rebound from a year that sputtered out of the gate.

A bright spot in recent weeks has been a resurgent independent box office, one in which edgier and more esoteric fare such as the World War II satire “Jojo Rabbit” and the Korean thriller “Parasite” have put up impressive grosses. That trend could continue as other Oscar bait such as “Little Women,” “1917” and “Uncut Gems” arrive in theaters.

“Disney Plus is going to carve out a huge audience,” predicts Jeff Bock, a box office analyst with Exhibitor Relations. “That’s going to continue to erode the box office until Hollywood can consistently bring its “A” game every time — and we know how difficult it is to make great movies.” There is one piece of streaming content that may have adversely impacted box office results. Martin Scorsese’s epic mob story “The Irishman” has earned rapturous reviews and Oscar buzz, but because it’s a Netflix release, it’s being seen on only a few hundred screens instead of the thousands that would typically play such a hotly anticipated film. Netflix refuses to give theaters an exclusive three-month run for its movies, preferring to offer them on its platform within weeks of their debut.

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