S&P 500Over the long-run, currencies and commodities don’t have a natural bias to them and tend to oscillate in large bull and bear cycles that end in minimal net change. Volatility can rise in either direction and isn’t consistent over time. In the case of commodities , volatility can actually be more likely to rise with a price rise than during a decline. But again, this is not wholly consistent across a cycle.
After the initial episode of the 1929-1932 stock market decline, volatility initially normalized by falling from a two-week reading of 127% to under 10% in about five months’ time. Volatility would ramp up again later, but did not exceed 100% again until almost two years later, when the worst part of the bear market drew near its conclusion.
The one-day, 20%+ decline in the major averages was of course a significant surprise – outside the possibility of projection – but as has been the case with most other major volatility cycles, it didn’t exactly occur out of the blue.
Source: Financial Digest (financialdigest.net)
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