In the days since Iran fired ballistic missiles at bases used by US forces in Iraq in response to the US killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani, both Washington and Tehran appear to have stepped back from the edge of war.
"The real retaliation will be taking place in the shadows, not in open battlefields. This is both a space that the Iranians tend to thrive in, and one that allows them a cloak of deniability," Cutz, now a senior associate at The Cohen Group, told Business Insider in an email."The Iranians have spent decades building capacity to fundraise and to strike in many corners of the world, including Latin America.
Right-wing leaders, especially in Brazil and Argentina, have been more willing to act against Hezbollah at US behest, but the Trump administration has pushed for more, even proposing Israel provide training and equipment. Hezbollah has been accused working with Mexican cartels to traffic drugs, launder money, and in a poorly conceived attempt to hire the Zetas cartel to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington, DC.
"I would imagine that the Iranians will be careful to not escalate this situation to the point of war," Cutz said,"but they will likely increase the tempo of their decades-long ongoing targeting of Americans, American facilities, American interests, and American allies all over the world, including in Latin America."
"The evidence of Iran and its various proxies having a presence and doing bad things in [Latin America] is real," Bosworth wrote."Still, in spite of all of Iran's activities, that sort of presence doesn't signal a plan for terrorism."
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