A new report from the Congressional Budget Office is projecting that GDP will decline at an annual rate of 38% this quarter, or 11% less than the first three months of the year. Here’s what the latest data on the economy tells us about recovery. The CBO estimates that the jobless rate will stay above 15% through September , a level not seen since the Great Depression; that rate will eventually fall, but it will take a long time and the annual unemployment rate won’t dip below 10% until 2021.
The office is also projecting consumer spending to fall by more than 11% this quarter after falling 7.6% during the first three months of the year. The CBO expects this spending to recover in the second half of the year, growing at a rate of more than 22%. in April as stores and businesses shut down and cash-strapped consumers pulled back on spending.
The four major pieces of legislation intended to stem all the economic damage will cause the federal deficit to grow by $2.2 trillion during the 2020 fiscal year, the CBO projects. There are some signs of economic recovery as states begin to slowly reopen: applications for home purchases have gained for the fifth week in a row, the Mortgage Bankers Association
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