"With CMG stock up +65% in 1Q, we believe valuation is full and reflects improved visibility for powerful SSS and margin drivers. We expect CMG to post strong 1Q results on April 24, with potential upside to our/consensus SSS of +6.5% and EPS on flow-through, although beef and marketing headwinds are likely. Despite NT sentiment risk related to avocado prices, we raise our PT to $700 and cut our rating to Hold.
"We downgrade U.S. Steel to Underperform from Buy on worse near-term U.S. market conditions than we anticipated, with channel checks telling us not only have recent price hikes not stuck but benchmark hot rolled coil retreated to its lows of the year in recent days. A sharply lower scrap price, down ~$25/t m/m for April defied higher global iron ore prices, and has pressured U.S. steel lower.
"In our view, LLY has the best long-term growth profile in US Pharma, that growth is the broad consensus, and we believe this is largely priced into the stock given its EV/EBIT premium to the group. We believe management has done an impressive job delivering, but we see limited upside from here until competition from NOVO's semaglutide franchise and LLY's overall immunology portfolio is more fully understood.
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