Judges, doctors, personnel committees, and stock portfolio managers make wildly different decisions based on the same evidence.
If your nephew is convicted of drug possession while on vacation, he may confront a judge who has especially harsh attitudes about drugs and end up having the book thrown at him; or he might luck into an easygoing judge who lets him off with a warning. The other huge part of the problem has been largely ignored – judgments are often very noisy. Ask ten different judges to suggest a sentence for your nephew, and you are likely to get widely divergent answers, as demonstrated in research by legal scholars. This is, of course, unfair.
Psychology is a scam.
being dogmatic causes slow information uptake and retrieval giving way to time lost in decision making that can be critical
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