Gold (XAU/USD) Buffeted by Fed Rate Hike Risk and Russia/Ukraine War Fears

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Increasingly hawkish market expectations are starting to be reined back and tomorrow’s press conference will hopefully give markets more detail and temper the current volatile market conditions. Get your market update from nickcawley1 here:

, and longer-dated US Treasuries. Russia has massed around 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border, sparking calls for ‘an unprecedented package of sanctions’ against the aggressor. This two-way struggle will keep traders on their toes and increase volatility in the precious metal over the weeks ahead.

The daily gold chart shows a recent series of higher highs and higher lows being made in the last six weeks as the precious metal moves slowly higher in a basic uptrend channel. All three simple moving averages are now back in a positive lineup, while longer-term horizontal resistance around $1,837/oz. is currently being tested. Above here, resistance lies at $1,849 and the multi-month high at $1,877/oz.69.31% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.26 to 1.

The number of traders net-long is 1.57% lower than yesterday and 1.26% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 9.35% higher than yesterday and 1.48% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall.

Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further

 

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