Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edged higher on Ukraine crisis, upside remains capped

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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edged higher on Ukraine crisis, upside remains capped By HareshMenghani Gold Commodities Ukraine Fed XAUUSD

ed on Friday. The XAU/USD held on to its modest intraday gains through the mid-European session and was last seen trading just below the $1,930 level. Theremains fragile amid fading hopes for a de-escalation in the Ukraine war and talk of additional sanctions on Russia. Germany and France said that a new round of sanctions targeting Russia was needed amid reports of war crimes in Ukraine.

That said, rising bets for a more aggressive policy tightening by the Fed kept a lid on any meaningful gains for the non-yielding yellow metal. The markets have been pricing in a 100 bps Fed rate hike move over the new two policy meetings, which was reinforced by stronger US monthly jobs report on Friday. This, in turn, pushed the yield on the two-year US government note - which is highly sensitive to rate hike expectations - to its highest since early 2019.

Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the FOMC monetary policy meeting minutes, due for release on Wednesday. In the meantime, fresh developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga will drive the broader market risk sentiment and provide some impetus to gold prices.

From current levels, any subsequent move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near the $1,940-$1,942 region. Sustained strength beyond has the potential to lift spot prices back towards the $1,964-$1,966 area. The momentum could further get extended towards the $1,986-$1,988 zone, above which bulls are likely to aim to reclaim the $2,000 psychological mark.

On the flip side, the daily low, around the $1,915 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $1,900-$1,890 area. A convincing break through the latter would set the stage for a slide towards the $1,872-$1.870 zone.

 

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