Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates in a range around $1,930-35 area, NFP awaited

rt. The incoming geopolitical headlines, so far, have failed to ease market worries about the possibility of a further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In fact, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia is consolidating and preparing powerful strikes in the country's south, including besieged Mariupol. This, in turn, was seen as a key factor that extended some support to the safe-haven precious metal.

Investors, however, seemed optimistic about the possibility of a diplomatic solution to end the war ahead of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which are set to continue on Friday. This was evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets. The risk-on impulse, along with hawkish Fed expectations, pushed the US Treasury bond yields higher and underpinned the US dollar.

The markets seem convinced that the Fed would adopt a more aggressive policy stance and hike interest rates by 50 bps at the next two meetings to combat stubbornly high inflation. The bets were reaffirmed by Thursday's release of the US Core PCE Price Index, which rose to 5.4% YoY in February from the 5.2% previous. Despite the supporting factors, the USD bulls seemed reluctant and preferred to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly jobs data.

The US economy is expected to have added 490K jobs in March, down from 678K in the previous month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is anticipated to edge lower to 3.7% from 3.8% in February. Nevertheless, the data would influence the Fed's policy outlook and drive the USD demand. This, along with fresh developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine saga, will assist investors to determine the next leg of a directional move for gold.

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