Asia Pacific levels around $1830 to current levels over 1.5% lower at $1800. For now, spot prices Whilst the short-end of the US yield curve is enjoying solid gains with 2s up about 4bps to post-pandemic highs near 0.80% as traders bet more confidently on near-term Fed hawkishness, the real action is occurring at the long-end. 5s are up over 10bps to 1.36%, 7s are up 12bps to 1.55%, 10s are up 13bps to 1.63%, as are 30s which have moved above 2.0% for the first time since November.
More important for gold given its negative correlation to real yields, 10-year TIPS are up nearly 10bps and probing the -1.0% level again. Recall that when real yields rise, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold also rises, dimming its appeal.
The move higher in US bond yields essentially marks a return to pre-Omicron emergence levels. Whilst short-end rates are at post-pandemic highs on Fed rate hike expectations, 10s and 30s still have some way to go . Markets are in a very optimistic mood on Monday as the new year gets underway, with US equities near-record highs as the likes of Tesla and Apple surge . Should yields continue to rise as Omicron worries subside, gold could be in trouble.
Goldman Sachs warns that “gold may fare better if inflation concerns build further and central banks are perceived to be accommodating more of that shock, particularly since positions appear to have been materially reduced”.
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