), divided by the projection along this vector of the multivariate uncertainty of this multivariate trend. This is analogous to a-score, or the number of standard uncertainties away from zero that a slope of a linear regression is in one-dimensional ordinary least squares regression.
Note that uncertainty in these trends is effectively entirely due to interannual variability; a 2° × 2° annual measurement represents the aggregation of a vast amount of data, so by the law of large numbers there is negligible uncertainty in the sample average, and therefore trend uncertainty is dominated by interannual variability and the statistical method described above is justified. .
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