Late Friday, BoE deputy governor Dave Ramsden said that he has now ‘become more confident in the evidence that risks to persistence in domestic inflation are receding, helped by improved dynamics.’ Ramsden added that relative to the February official forecasts risks to inflation are pointed to the downside, ‘with a scenario where inflation stays close to the 2% target over the whole forecast period at least as likely.’ The BoE forecast for a three-year period.
The latest UK rate cut probabilities have shifted forward with the first 25 basis point cut now expected at the August 1st central bank meeting., cable has now fallen below 1.2400 and seems set to test the 1.2313 and then the 1.2303 level. Below here, big figure support at 1.2200 and 1.2100 before 1.2039 comes into focus.
IG Retail data shows 71.54% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.51 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 0.56% lower than yesterday and 1.64% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.07% higher than yesterday and 5.74% lower from last week.. The ECB is fully expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in June, and potentially again in July, leaving the ECB ahead of the BoE in the rate-cutting cycle.
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