Initial projections, alongside statements from Macron and Melenchon on Sunday, indicate that the most probable outcome is that no party will achieve an absolute majority, resulting in a 'hung parliament'. Hence, public spending in France is not set to rise significantly. Projections indicate that National Rally won the first round with around 33.5% of the votes, which translates to 230-305 seats in the National Assembly. A party needs 289 to gain an absolute majority.
In the “cohabitation” scenario where Le Pen’s party, Rassemblement National , wins an absolute majority and Jordan Bardella becomes the next prime minister, we also expect the 10y yield spread between France and Germany to tighten, albeit to a less extend and trade between 50-60 bp within 3 months.
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