France and Germany's Ukraine rift runs deeper than Macron and Scholz

The strength of the two countries' relationship is critical to keep Europe united, but shifts in sentiment at home are cause for concern, writes one expert.French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press statement with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, at the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany March 15, 2024 . / Photo: Reuters

Rather, the source of this rift can be traced to structural shifts in the countries’ domestic political coalitions—shifts which are likely to persist for some time. The war in Ukraine provides the most recent test of the French-German relationship. Will France and Germany once again rise to meet the occasion? Or will the pressures of interstate conflict unveil a divide? In recent weeks the case increasingly appears to be the latter.The war in 🇺🇦 is “existential…”If Russia were to win, life for the French would change. We would no longer have security in Europe.

The reason instead can be traced to longer-term shifts in domestic politics—in Germany, France, and also in the United States—which will stand in the way of a renewed partnership. In Germany, past leadership was limited by the memory of the past and the need to steer clear from foreign entanglements.

In France, the presidents of the Fifth Republic have projected state strength, from Charles de Gaulle on the right to François Mitterrand on the left. Macron appears to be reading from their script, European allies be damned. Finally, past iterations of the Franco-German axis have been cast against the background of a very different United States. For most of the postwar era, the US played the role of what political scientists call the"hegemon," or superpower that takes on the burden of underwriting the global political-economic system.

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