Liu He, China's vice premier, will meet with Trump and other senior trade negotiators on Thursday and Friday. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg photo credit: © 2019 Bloomberg Finance LPChina trade talks continue tomorrow in Washington. Everyone in the market is watching this. It's like the Mueller Report for people working in finance and running export operations.
Despite the upside surprise in the first quarter, economic growth has slowed since mid-2018 and increased risks from the trade variable. Several analyses suggest that if the current negotiations with China fail, the direct impact on the economy would be noticeable but not overwhelming. Since businesses recognize that tariffs could change again during the life of any capital equipment they buy today, policy uncertainty is an incentive to delay investment until the trade policy outlook is clearer. Tariffs create an incentive for companies to invest outside of China, but not necessarily in the U.S.
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