Forecasters look at many factors when they’re predicting how active a fire season might be, said Nick Nauslar, fire meteorologist at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise, Idaho.
Short-term drought: Spring rain can delay the start of the fire season, but in some lower-elevation areas, it can also feed the growth of vegetation that will dry out and fuel fires later in the summer. Weather: Meteorologists consider both long- and short-range weather forecasts when predicting whether conditions will be conducive to fires starting and spreading rapidly. Lightning storms spark fires, and dry and windy conditions can further promote rapid fire spread. So can atmospheric instability, which results when warm air near the surface meets cooler air aloft and can allow fires to develop massive plumes that create their own weather.
So many factors.
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