Experts Think They Know When Coronavirus Might Peak in the US

—like the so-called Spanish flu of 1918, and the SARS outbreak of 2003—to try to figure out when the current coronavirus pandemic may subside, even those aren't perfect correlations, due to different viruses and less-advanced medical technology and treatments.

Still, the similarities between SARS and COVID-19 are there: Both are coronaviruses and have similar DNA, Ravina Kullar, PharmD, MPH, infectious diseases researcher at Expert Stewardship, Inc., and Infectious Diseases Society of American expert tells. They also have the same main transmission route of respiratory droplets and similar incubation periods. But with the SARS outbreak in 2003, only 8,098 people worldwide fell ill,, and just 774 people died over the course of eight months.

Dr. Kullar says that the flu of 1918 pandemic may suggest a more similar pattern to to COVID-19, but even that's not an exact comparison. "I think what you can see with the [so-called Spanish] flu is a very similar pattern in terms of how many people it impacted, how many people it killed, and how social distancing measures were not put into place quickly enough," says Dr. Kullar.

Aside from the projections by the IHME, it's also helpful to look at the trajectory of COVID-19 in other countries that dealt with the disease before the US had to. "I think we can learn from China in terms of how they implemented physical distancing measures as quickly as they could, and now they're seeing very minimal cases," says Dr. Kullar.

Something to keep in mind, however, is that even after the coronavirus peaks and subsides in the US, another wave may hit. "The virus will still be here when things start opening up again; it happens in waves," says Dr. Kullar, adding that if the US begins opening everything up again immediately after the peak, "it can put us in another bad situation.

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