"I can't think of another time recently that the Fed had this much of an about-face within a month or a few weeks of their meeting date," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at the Leuthold Group. "I still think they do 25 [basis points], but the case is weak."dating back to early June, boosting the Citi Economic Surprise Index to its highest level since February.
"Powell has been putting his foot in his mouth at post-meeting press conferences. Will he suggest that this mid-cyle cut is at its end?" said Michael Arone, chief investment strategist for State Street Global Advisors. The market and the Fed actually have come closer to together in recent days in terms of the outlook for rates in the longer term. But the two sides still remain a fair distance apart, as the Fed ultimately sees the rate cuts ending and the funds rate actually drifting higher, while the market is still pricing in about three more rate cuts before the cycle ends in mid-2021.Arone sees the U.S.-China dispute as key to what happens ahead.
"The market is pricing in a great number of cuts over the coming quarters than perhaps the Fed is willing to suggest at this point," he said. "Investors have concluded that without the U.S.-China trade conflict, it's probably not likely that the Fed would be cutting rates at this point."
Buy stocks
Best to stay pay. Save the ammo for when really needed. 4Q data necessary to see the real direction. Would rather the FOMC be slightly behind the curve than have nothing to battle with later. Suspect Brexit may have surprise impact on US - wait for it.
Dead wrong. Front end rates are massively elevated due to Corp tax day and large treasury refunding. What in the past 24 hours would possibly inform bets against a rate cut?
pattie_jabbaz
impossible
Nope. Oil disruptions and sky high oil prices will all but guarantee a rate cut
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