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Looking to a more traditional measure of the broader speculative markets, the S&P 500 was putting in for a much more controlled performance. The benchmark equity index managed a more restrained -0.4 percent loss on the first day of exchange-based trade of the New Year. That and the day’s entire range fit neatly into the previous 10 days’ established territory.
Extending the historical time frame a bit to look at the first full week of the year, history does suggest – with statistical relevance – that this longer opening period has averaged a more significant and distinct performance. From 1900 to 2021, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.0 percent gain through the opening week of the year. Logically, that fits the capital allocation expectations that occur through funds and managers that need to redistribute capital and set portfolios.
While systemic fundamental themes can developed unpredictably, we generally have the benefit of known catalysts along the way that can facilitate market progress. The docket ahead has the capacity to dig into some of the systemically important themes. Most notable on my radar is the concern around recession risks in 2023.
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