Zelensky had made clear ahead of his visits to Berlin, Paris and London that Ukraine’s much anticipated counteroffensive could not begin until more weapons and ammunition had been secured.could significantly enhance Ukraine’s offensive capabilities, much of the weaponry pledged by European leaders this week is unlikely to reach the battlefield until well after the start of the counteroffensive, military experts say, and Europe’s ability to sustain such support into the future remains unclear.
There is a growing realization in Western capitals that the piecemeal assistance to Ukraine so far may not be sufficient to allow Kyiv to make more than localized breakthroughs along the 900-mile front line where Russia has spent months fortifying its positions. And some in Moscow echo that assessment and appear confident that Russia’s military can largely hold its positions, though nervousness is growing over long-range missile supplies and whether Kyiv can break through the land bridge that Russia has carved to the Crimean Peninsula, which would be seen a significant blow.
Much of the announced military aid to Ukraine from Western governments has been sourced from equipment that would have gone out of service anyway, Watling said. “Most of what we have given is stuff we have already paid for a long time ago, and we would have had to pay to decommission it. … We are now talking about a situation where we have to put money on the table because we have to invest in industrial capacity.
that Ukraine was chewing through ammunition much more quickly than it could be produced. Wait times for new large-caliber ammunition had grown from 12 to 28 months“Just as important as supporting a successful offensive is an industrial policy to match the scale of the war, and we don’t have that yet,” Barrons said. “The most galling thing is that we have lost 13 months of war before we have begun to ramp up industry.
“It sends the message to the Kremlin that, ‘No matter what you think, our policy is set for longer,’” the diplomat continued.Signs are emerging of a parallel effort in Russia to increase production, despite Western sanctions. Data recently published on Russia’s federal treasury website showed Moscow spent 2 trillion rubles on defense in January and February alone, a 282 percent increase over the same period in 2021, Reuters reported on Monday. Russia is on course to produce 2.
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