Euro Weekly Forecast: Euro Holds up but US Data May Change the Outlook

Between the ECB, the Bank of England and the Fed, it’s the ECB that appears most likely to cut interest rates first and deliver the greatest number of cuts in 2024 with the potential for 3 cuts, most likely to start in June. In addition, the ECB policy rate has peaked at 4%, a long way short of the 5.25% in the UK and 5.25% - 5.5% in the US which naturally created a negative interest rate differential for the Euro, placing the single currency on the back foot.

1.0800 is the marker to watch for a bullish continuation, which may see a retest of channel resistance if successful. The RSI is far from overbought meaning there is potential for a bullish continuation before a pullback becomes necessary. The 200 SMA appears to be limiting upside potential of the pair and will be something to look out for at the start of the coming week. UK unemployment data and wage growth figures are due on Tuesday and can influence the pair. The labour market has softened and the BoE will be hoping for further declines in average earnings but this has emerged as less of a concern for the BoE compared to the broader ‘services inflation’ data that will be released later in the month.

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