Euro Forecast: Positives Few and Far Between – Setups for EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD

be working so far – at least if you look at what’s happening with Greek, Italian, Portuguese, and Spanish yields – but the currency market is telling a different story. Significant questions remain over how the ECB will be able to successfully navigate raising rates to combat inflation while preventing fragmentation of Eurozone bond markets, leading to a dramatic underperformance by the Euro in recent weeks.

The questionable fundamental picture in the near-term has helped catalyze a meaningful reversal in the major EUR-crosses. EUR/JPY rates have broken their multi-month uptrend. EUR/GBP rates have experienced a failed bullish breakout, and EUR/USD rates just touched parity.EUR/USD RATE TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: DAILY CHART , it was noted that “range trading remains the preference until either support around 1.0349/97 breaks to the downside or resistance around 1.0757/1.0806 is breached to the upside.” The downside break transpired last week, setting up a measured move towards 0.9892.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias.

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