ESPN projection has Warriors in play-in tournament, with an explanation

Sure, they lost two rotation players from the team that won the NBA Finals in June, but almost every championship team suffers similar roster changes, and neither Gary Payton II nor Otto Porter Jr. was among the inner core of the 2022 team. The pair combined for five playoff starts.

So why, then, would any projection system rate them as the eighth-best team in the Western Conference?, which published Thursday morning. Vegas oddsmakers have the Warriors’ win total for the upcoming season at 51.5, while the ESPN model projects them nearly 10 wins worse, at 41.9. But Pelton, who said he expects the Warriors to surpass that projection, explained in his piece that he uses three years of data to create projections. While the Warriors won the title in 2022, they lost in the play-in tournament after the 2020-21 season and had the league’s worst record the season before that.

So the outlier-reduction strategy to use a larger sample actually emphasized the Warriors’ two “outlier” seasons, in this instance, as they’ve made six of the last eight NBA Finals, but only one of the last three. Klay Thompson missed two consecutive seasons, Steph Curry missed most of 2019-20, and Draymond Green missed a sizable chunk of games in each of the two down seasons. The Warriors were seeking their next iteration after Kevin Durant’s departure.

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