from FiveThirtyEight and the University of Chicago shows that between May and October, more than seven months into the coronavirus crisis, economists generally haven’t changed their views on when U.S. GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels.... [+]
following restrictions imposed to slow the spread of coronavirus on October 17, 2020 in New York City.Some 30 economists say there is a two-thirds probability that the economy wouldn’t be back to normal until 2022 or later—that’s essentially unchanged from what they were expecting in May, according to the most recent survey results from earlier this month.
The economists’ October predictions around fourth-quarter GDP only slightly improved from what they expected back in June . FiveThirtyEight found economists have become more optimistic over time about one metric: the unemployment rate, which dropped from a record high of 14.7 in April much more quickly than experts were expecting.Allan Timmermann, an economics professor at the University of California San Diego who consulted on the survey, chalks the stagnating forecasts up to prolonged uncertainty about the course of the virus.
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