, a finance professor at Duke University. But it’s not a guarantee, since an inverted yield curve doesn’t itself cause a recession. Instead, it’s a reflection of how investors feel about the economy’s future — and those feelings could be off-base. Other economists, like Sinclair, also said they’re not sure yet what the inverted yield curve means — and Harvey added that although it has a good predictive track record, it’s just one signal in a complex economic landscape.
Even if the inverted yield curve proves prescient and a downturn does come, we don’t have a good way to pinpoint when it will hit. According to Harvey, recessions have followed inverted yield curves by anywhere between six and 22 months. That’s not a small range, especially in political terms — it’s the difference between an economic slowdown that begins just before the Iowa caucuses and a recession that starts five months after the next presidential inauguration.
And in the meantime, consumers, investors and policymakers will all keep doing things that affect the economy. It’s possible that theabout an impending recession could become self-fulfilling if everyday people respond by saving their money instead of spending it. Or maybe the opposite will happen, and smart policy responses to early warning signals could ward off a recession or make it less damaging.
Either way, the unpredictability of human behavior will frustrate anyone trying to pin down exactly when a recession will arrive. That doesn’t mean economists should stop making forecasts or that signals like the inverted yield curve aren’t useful. But anyone looking at predictions about when the next recession will land should take those forecasts with a big grain of salt.
Economic downturns are predictable and historically tied to republican presidency.
So do Presidential elections for your crack news staff.
IT IS NOT A SURPRISE WITH POTUS AS PRESIDENT
Wow.. you are really pushing this false narrative.
How about talking how the economy is doing well & try to make itt even better.
and why that is ... most economists are employed by firms that profit from latency speculation effects, effects that would disappear if they told the truth about the economy
This is not an economic downturn, this is an American downturn, thanks to realDonaldTrump
Trump has said he doesn't care about America's debt because he won't be around. That should be enough to disqualify him for the 2020 election. Such a statement blares out that he does not represent all Americans. Who is still supporting this guy?
We can see this one coming from a mile away.
How would it profit the rich if they warned us? It wouldn't so they don't tell us.
All you can do is look at what has happened in the past and compare it to the present situation. The current trends point to recession, but ignoring this is not a solution and will not make it go away.
I’ll take this economy over anything we’ve seen in recent times.....
Winning
Lay people are good at predicting recessions. It is here already. Wait for hunger to start biting before you realize it.
That's because there usually isn't someone deliberately driving the economy into the ground.
This is no surprise realDonaldTrump was never good in math🤣😂
Most of us predicted it the day Trump was elected
Journalists are usually bad at reporting news.
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