The resilience of the U.S. job market has been a major surprise. Last year, employers added 4.5 million jobs, second only to the 6.7 million that were added in 2021 in government records going back to 1940. And last month's unemployment rate, 3.5%, matched a 53-year low.
But the good times for America's workers aren't likely to last. As higher rates make borrowing and spending increasingly expensive across the economy, many consumers will spend less and employers will likely hire less. "Looking ahead, recent data suggest that the pace of expansion could slow sharply in Q1, as the effects of restrictive monetary policy take hold. From the Fed's perspective, a desired slowdown in the economy will be welcome news," Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said in a note."However, even as growth slows, a focus on lowering inflation means rates will remain higher for longer.
Moody's Analytics estimates that the resulting upheaval could wipe out nearly 6 million American jobs in a recession similar to the devastating one that was triggered by the 2007-2009 financial crisis.© 2023 CBS Interactive Inc. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. The Associated Press contributed to this report.
I'm sure the deck on the Titanic still felt pretty solid as it was going down!
Good job 👏
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