Shifts in US yields remain the decisive factor for developments. In the space of just one month, the benchmark US 10Y Treasury yield has increased from 4.30% to 4.60%, triggering memories of last autumn, when the same yield peaked a tad above 5%. That being said, we assess the current dynamic to be different to that prevailing in the autumn in several ways.
ECB ready to cut interest rates in June – and the Fed will not change that European yields have experienced a knock-on effect from rising US yields, which in midApril briefly sent the 10Y Bund yield above 2.5%. In contrast to the US, however, markets have had no real reason to doubt that rate cuts are approaching.
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