Do the Iowa caucuses predict who will win the party nomination? What about president?

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Tonight's Democratic debate is in Iowa. Do Iowa's caucuses predict who will win the party nomination? What about president?

DES MOINES — Presidential candidates spend months or even years in Iowa during election season, hoping to secure that coveted top spot on caucus night. But while a win in Iowa can spring candidates into the spotlight,Since the caucuses began in 1972, there have been 18 caucus winners between the two parties: 10 Democrats and 8 Republicans. More than half of those winners went on to secure their party's nomination in that cycle, but only three would go on to be elected president.

Incumbent presidents who ran unopposed or faced negligible competition Iowa are excluded from the data. The Iowa Democratic caucuses over the last 20 years have been especially accurate at choosing the nominee: Every caucus winner since 2000, from Vice President Al Gore to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, has gone on to become the party's general election nominee.

 

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