December job data missed badly, but the same report hints we're in a boom

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The December job report missed badly. The same report hints we're in an economic boom.

The last two months have given economists a bleak look at how the US jobs recovery is progressing. December payroll growth wasand marked the smallest one-month job gain of 2021. November's disappointing job creation was only revised slightly higher. After healthy job additions in the summer and fall, the final months of 2021 signal a major stumble in the labor market's rebound.

These surveys are both tracking very similar things — how many Americans are working — but recent months have shown a wild divergence between the two readings. The household survey generally has a broader definition of employment. It includes those on unpaid leave as well as self-employed people and gig workers. Yet the household survey doesn't double-count people who have two jobs, whereas the establishment survey would count those people twice.

 

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