Debates Can Shake Up an Election. But Does Record Early Voting Mean This One Is Too Late?

more than one-third of the total votes of the 2016 election. And in several potentially crucial swing states vote totals are nearing, or have far surpassed half of the total number of votes cast four years ago.

The turnout in Texas, for example, has been tremendous, likely reflecting enthusiasm of partisans from both parties. Nearly 6 million Texans have voted, representing a whopping. A similar story is emerging in Georgia and North Carolina . Moving through the battleground, Florida, Iowa, and Arizona are all above 40 percent of 2016 turnout, while Michigan and Wisconsin are in the high 30s. Of the must-win states, Pennsylvania comes in lowest at just over 20 percent of 2016 totals.

All indications are that the 2020 election will deliver a very high turnout, so the actual percentage of 2020 voters who have cast their ballots is likely somewhat lower than these 2016 comparisons suggest. But even ifwere to vote this year that means the 2020 election is about 30 percent decided — under the national dynamics that have been favorable for Biden.

What does this mean for Trump? He doesn’t just need to reverse the headwinds he’s facing. He needs to change the tides. To recover he will need to engineer a reversal in public opinion so dramatic that he doesn’t just beat Biden among the remaining pool of voters who have not cast their ballots, but routs him. For a polarizing president mired in a pandemic that has killed close to 230,000 Americans that may be too much to ask from even the most successful debate performance.

Yes

Unlike 2016 there is very little undecided now, only what can either be surpressed or disallowed.

Yes.

CAN shake up elections but anyone who doesn't already know who they're voting for has been living in a cave. No matter which side you're on, you're pretty far from voting for the other disappointing guy, I'd imagine.

I don’t think anyone is undecided at this point.

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