Iranian people wear protective masks to prevent contracting coronavirus, as they sit in taxi in Tehran, Iran February 25, 2020.WANA /Nazanin Tabatabaee via REUTERS
What’s more, forecasting global recessions is tricky because most countries can’t match U.S. data for its breadth. It’s also rare for the world economy to actually shrink - prior to 2008-2009, that happened only in 1990-1991. “That would be the tipping point. The question then will be if world growth will fall under 2%,” he added.If the world’s biggest economy tips into recession, it’s likely others will follow. But a closely watched Leading Economic Index in the United States, compiled by the Conference Board think-tank, hit a record high in January.
Now, the coronavirus has sent three-month borrowing costs above 10-year rates while the two-year/10-year curve is less than 20 basis points from inversion. The index stood at 5.1 in December, off three-years lows touched in mid-2019 during the Sino-U.S. trade spat. But recovery has probably fizzled this year as the virus dampened activity.If growth hinges on booming trade, the Baltic Dry Index shipping benchmark is sounding alarm bells. It hit three-year lows this month and has dipped during every previous recession. Since September the BDI has plunged 80% to around 506 points. It troughed during the 2016 growth scare at around 300 points.
Global composite global PMIs from JPMorgan showed output and new orders still expanding last month. But February’s composite is likely to be very different.Bond yields and inflation usually rise when growth is strong and vice-versa. So the recent tumble in market-based inflation gauges - five-year forward swaps - in the euro zone and the United States is cause for concern.
Here we go
Long overdue correction from years of QE. Printing money and a ballooning Fed balance sheet has done more harm than any perceived 'good'
Media is hoping it does.
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