Dangerous brew: Ocean heat and La Nina combo likely mean more Atlantic hurricanes this summer

FILE - A home which came off its blocks sits partially submerged in a canal, in Horseshoe Beach, Fla., Friday, Sept. 1, 2023, two days after the passage of Hurricane Idalia. Nearly all the experts think 2024 will be one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record. – Get ready for what nearly all the experts think will be one of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record, thanks to unprecedented ocean heat and a brewing La Nina.

About 20 other groups — universities, other governments, private weather companies — also have made seasonal forecasts. All but two expect a busier, nastier summer and fall for hurricanes. The“All the ingredients are definitely in place to have an active season,” National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said. “It’s a reason to be concerned, of course, but not alarmed.”

La Nina usually reduces high-altitude winds that can decapitate hurricanes, and generally during a La Nina there's more instability or storminess in the atmosphere, which can seed hurricane development. Storms get their energy from hot water. Ocean waters have been record warm for 13 months in a row and a La Nina is forecast to arrive by mid to late summer.

“Hurricanes live off of warm ocean water,” said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. “That tends to basically be fuel for the hurricane. But also when you have the warm Atlantic what that tends to do is also force more air up over the Atlantic, more rising motion, which helps support strong thunderstorms.”

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