, and fluctuations in gas prices, because the presidential contest appears to be quite close at the moment. Normally, it would take seismic economic shifts to alter the course of awithin the last year, as perceptions of the president’s handling of economic affairs have hardened by that point. appear to be almost evenly matched in national polls and in the Electoral College, smaller changes could be the difference between winning and losing.
As another point of comparison, Hillary Clinton won 51.2% of the popular vote in 2016 but lost in the Electoral College to Trump. Specifically, the model takes into consideration gas prices, household income growth, mortgage rates, and consumer confidence. The Moody’s Analytics model is not publicly available, but the authors shared a sensitivity analysis that shows how much each economic variable would have to change to tip the election to Trump.
Or, the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage would have to rise to 8.65%. It has bounced around between 6.6% and 7.2% in early 2024,
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