Corona Capital: Pollution, African beer, SAP

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Chinese air quality improves during Covid-19, AB InBev takes on South Africa’s government over alcohol bans, and SAP gives investors little reason to hope for a sunnier future. Catch up with the latest pandemic-related financial insights:

across the country. The concentration of harmful PM2.5 pollutants in 337 cities fell on average by around 8% per cubic metre over 2020, while samples suggested some 85% of waterways were fit for human use, a 7 percentage point improvement.

The breath of fresh air may be short-lived, though. Smokestacks, cars and consumption will restart. While policymakers elsewhere have madea pillar of their recovery plan, President Xi Jinping has yet to embrace that strategy. On the contrary, local governments’ stimulus efforts include investments in coal, oil and gas.

SAB is understandably upset. But squaring off with politicians may be counterproductive given South Africa’s booze-related social problems. Atof pure alcohol per capita each year, South Africa’s consumption is 50% above the global average, and feeds directly into its high levels of violent crime and traffic accidents. Despite having Africa’s worst Covid-19 burden, booze-free lockdowns appear to have lowered overall death rates. Quietly crying into its pint might be SAB’s wisest option.

No matter, bulls would say. The real prize is SAP’s fast-growing cloud-subscription business, which is more predictable and should garner a higher valuation multiple over time. Klein expects cloud revenue to grow by 13%-18% in 2021. But that’s a wide margin, and below the level analysts expect for rivals ServiceNow and Salesforce.com. SAP’s shares trade at 22 times forward earnings – roughly the same as its average multiple over the last two years.

 

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