Total stocks of crude oil and refined products outside the Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week were just 17 million barrels, or 1.4%, above the pre-epidemic five-year average for 2015-2019.
And Brent’s six-month calendar spread has moved into a significant backwardation, well above its long-term average, as traders anticipate stocks will move through balance to below normal in the second half of the year. Gulf Coast refineries and storage terminals are connected to the Brent market so the emptying of local tank farms has boosted spot prices and calendar spreads.
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