Median 2023 price forecasts for all the core LME base metals are lower than both last year’s price and current trading levels.
Many think it’s already over-priced. The median forecast of 31 analysts is for cash copper to fall back to an average of $8,250 per tonne in the second quarter before recovering to $8,750 in the fourth quarter. China’s recovery momentum and growing “green” demand from solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles are seen helping copper rise further to $9,200 per tonne in 2024.
Lead is similarly out of favour with analysts, the average LME cash price forecast to slide from $2,153 per tonne in 2022 to $2,040 in 2024 under the weight of a cumulative 183,000-tonne surplus this year and next. These are small numbers in a 60-million-tonne global market-place, and seem to reflect wariness about the continued impact on smelter production of high power pricing in Europe and sporadic rounds of power rationing in Chinese provinces such as Yunnan.
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