Respondents also said such a transition depended on the rich world fulfilling promises to help developing economies, and on measures to set a global carbon price of at least $100 - well above the level reached in most current schemes.
While the Sept. 16-Oct. 20 poll also revealed differences among top forecasters over how to measure the economic stakes of climate change and decarbonisation, it showed a strong consensus of views around the benefit of early and coordinated action. The International Monetary Fund this month cited estimates that net zero by 2050 would mean extra investments of 0.6%-1% of annual global GDP over the next two decades amounting to a cumulative $12 trillion-$20 trillion.
A "business-as-usual" trajectory leading to temperature rises of 1.6C, 2.4C and 4.4C by 2030, 2050 and 2100 respectively would result in 2.4% lost output by 2030, 10% by 2050 and 18% by 2100, according to the median replies to the survey.In contrast, if countries can jointly limit the temperature rise to 1.4C by the end of the century, the loss to global output would be reduced to 2.0% by 2030, 2.3% by 2050 and 2.5% by 2100, they forecast.
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