What happens when an electorate wants change but there’s no obvious change candidate on the ballot? This question popped into my head after I watched one of Rich Thau’s fascinating monthly focus groups of Biden-Trump voters, with the latest edition convening Pennsylvania voters who voted once for either President Joe Biden or Hillary Clinton and once for former President Donald Trump.
That same math problem could affect the Democrats if, say, a big chunk of progressive voters in Michigan or Wisconsin decides both Trump and Biden have the same basic policy toward Israel and they vote for Kennedy as a protest vote. Perhaps that wouldn’t hurt Democrats down the ballot in either state, but it would lower the winning number Trump needs to carry either. As in North Carolina for Biden, if Trump can make 47% a winning number in Wisconsin or Michigan, he’ll carry it.
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