China’s slowdown—the worst since the early days of the pandemic—risks spilling over its borders. Its neighbors in Asia look particularly vulnerable.
The plunge in domestic demand will hurt exporters to China, and lockdowns could disrupt supplies to manufacturers in other countries, particularly in Asia. Some commodity exporters will also feel the chill. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent energy and food prices soaring, but prices of commodities more directly linked to Chinese demand—especially industrial metals—haven't joined in the ride. Iron ore is down around 10% in the past month, and aluminum and copper have dropped similarly. China’s housing market remains deep in the doldrums despite easing policies rolled out by many local governments.
We're in a bear market. I'll buy in August at lower prices. Cash might be losing 1 percent per month to inflation, but that beats losing 4 percent per month to the bear.
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