China has ramped up actions towards the Philippines in a disputed shoal in the South China Sea, using"gray zone tactics" to skirt a U.S.-Philippines defense pact.
"The failure of the MDT to deter the shows the vagueness in the conveyed commitments of the two parties," said Chester Cabalza, president and founder of the Philippines-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation.," reaffirming that an"armed attack" in the South China Sea on Filipino vessels would invoke mutual defense obligations of the U.S.
Beijing's actions aim to stop resupply missions to a rusted Philippine vessel grounded on the shoal since 1999, as its existence there appears to lend credence to the Philippines' claim on the reef. An expanded definition of an"armed attack" in the treaty could include"any willful act to inflict injury or that leads to fatality on Filipinos," said Richard Heydarian, policy adviser and senior lecturer of international affairs at the University of the Philippines.However, according to Heydarian, a muted Philippine reaction to last week's clash could be a sign of its apprehensions with regard to invoking the mutual defense treaty.
However, according to Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute's Southeast Asia Program, the U.S. is unlikely to widen the scope of the defense pact, as doing so could draw them into a wider military conflict.Amid a"sober assessment on the risk of U.S.
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