“If these trends continue we’re going to have to take much more dramatic, arguably drastic action,” he said. If these trends continue, the potential for a stay-at-home order for those areas in the Purple more in line with the stay-at-home order that folks were familiar with at the beginning of the year.”
As to what threshold could trigger further action, “We are looking at intensive care capacity as the trigger for further action,” California Director of Health and Human Services Dr. Mark Ghaly said.indicated that, while the state had actually seen a decrease in infected ICU patients, the line tracing the number of hospitalizations was nearly straight up, with the state reporting a record 9,365 people hospitalized with the virus.
The number of hospitalized virus patients who wind up in the ICU has reliably stayed at 12%. That means, over the course of two weeks, the state could see an additional 530 ICU patients. That would put the total number of Covid-19 hospitalizations at about 1/3 of the state’s total. And given there are a host of other maladies that will likely also sent residents to the ICU, that could mean acute care facilities are overwhelmed. Newsom predicted exactly that on Monday.
The governor went through a chart of state projections — see below — that indicated the number of COVID patients in California’s hospitals could double or triple in the next month. Even more frightening, he indicated that state models show that California ICUs will be overwhelmed by mid-December. In Los Angeles, the tipping point is projected to come in mid- to late December.“This is in absence of improved…efforts,” stressed Newsom.
On Monday, Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer and Dr. Anthony Fauci both warned of “,” meaning that the county’s already record number of cases would be joined by a wave of infections caused by Thanksgiving activities. If the state is seeing the beginning of that surge and the day-over-day increase is already this big, the situation is truly grim.
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