Breakingviews - Central banks’ debt monsters will need taming

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In 2020 central banks fought the pandemic by slashing rates and buying bonds. In 2021 they must limit banks’ exposure to toppy buyouts and shine a brighter light on private loans, say Unmack1 and Three_Guineas. BVPredictions2021

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde leaves an EU summit amid the coronavirus disease outbreak in Brussels, Belgium December 11, 2020.

Central bankers’ aggressive intervention and pledge to keep rates at or below zero has already unleashed a race for risky debt. Junk-rated U.S. corporations like Occidental Petroleum and cruise provider Carnival, issued over $345 billion in bonds through early October, according to S&P Global Ratings, a record. Yields on American and European junk-rated debt are under 5% and 3% respectively, the lowest ever in the United States, according to ICE Bank of America Indices.

Restraining banks will push even more risk towards non-bank lenders, particularly so-called private credit funds. Their assets more than doubled from 2012 through March 2020, topping $845 billion. Regulators will need to make doubly sure that banks and insurers’ exposure to such lenders is clear and manageable. Requiring funds to provide simple, standardised disclosures could help identify bubbles.

 

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Unmack1 Three_Guineas Major indicators of Economy are: Inflation, Current Account, Central Bank Foreign Reserves and Import Bill. Borrowing of fiat currency (Printing Money) is not an issue. Devaluation of Fiat Currency due to Printing-Borrowing can be neutralized through Crypto Deflationary Currency

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