Breakingviews - Buffett’s $4.2 bln HP bet is more IBM than Apple

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Berkshire Hathaway said on Wednesday it had taken an 11% stake in computer and printer maker HP , worth $4.2 billion. Unfortunately for Warren Buffett, he looks more likely to repeat his experience with IBM than with Apple .

HP’s valuation of 9 times estimated earnings over the next 12 months appears cheap, and the company should return some $5 billion to investors this fiscal year. Buffett’s blessing has goosedIBM and Apple shares were both trading at a price-to-earnings discount to the S&P 500 when Berkshire bought shares in the companies in 2011 and 2016 respectively. Berkshire has earned over $100 billion on Apple.

. The exit was largely a wash, but the S&P 500 Index more than doubled during Buffett’s IBM ownership.The difference was revenue. After Berkshire bought shares, Apple sales grew 70% as the company introduced new products. By contrast, revenue shrank at fading IBM. Analysts think HP sales should remain stable over the next few years, according to Refinitiv. But PC and printer sales are mature. If they start shrinking, this could be another opportunity squandered.

 

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