Bernie’s Rivals Aren’t Going to Do Him Any Favors at the Convention

Bernie wants the nomination if he has a plurality of pledged delegates. Photo: John Locher/AP In the course of the often-fiery, regularly combative Democratic candidate debate in Las Vegas, the final question from Chuck Todd didn’t elicit much emotion from the respondents. But it was very significant:

The subtext here is that the candidate most likely to arrive in Milwaukee with a majority of pledged delegates is Bernie Sanders. It’s what the projections say, and what logic says, too. But as the strongest candidate, Sanders is also the candidate most likely to fit Todd’s hypothetical of someone with a plurality but not a majority of pledged delegates.

But as Sanders pointed out in his answer, a second ballot would allow 771 unelected and unpledged super-delegates to cast their own votes. They would represent an estimated 16 percent of total second-ballot delegates. The provision keeping superdelegates off the table on the first ballot was part of a compromise deal struck by the DNC with Sanders supporters after the 2016 cycle.

Now the refusal of his rivals to proactively grant Bernie this boon is hardly unconditional. If, say, Sanders got to the convention just short of a majority, it’s likely there’d be a move to put him over the top. But unlikely as this is, imagine Bernie’s got 35 percent of the pledged delegates and someone else has 33 percent.

There’s not much doubt Sanders is appealing to his own supporters’ suspicions with the hypothesis that after “winning” the primaries the Godless Corporate Powers That Be will deny him the nomination by mobilizing Establishment superdelegates against him. There is, of course, a way around that: winning a majority of pledged delegates, which any successful putative nominee ought to be able do with ease.

Smart piece 👍

Tell him to call his comrades for assistance.

Prepare for the DNC to lose a generation of voters.

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