As Trump escalates pressure, experts fear Iran will strike back

Since withdrawing a year ago from a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran, the Trump administration has tried to block Iran’s ability to export oil, designated the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization and, on May 5, announced it was hastening the deployment of a Navy carrier strike group to the Middle East to deter any possible attack by Iran on the United States or its allies.

During the past 15 years, Iranian-sponsored Shi’a militias have become an expeditionary force that Tehran uses to advance its foreign policy in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. During the Iraq war, Iran used groups such as Kata’ib Hezbollah and Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq to attack U.S. forces with advanced guerrilla weaponry.

“Iran knows that by doing so it makes it difficult for the United States to respond directly,” because the United States is not going to “declare war” on Iran’s surrogate forces in Iraq or Syria, Roule said. Such a scenario is more likely, Quantock said, than what he termed “the most dangerous” action Iran could take: blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

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