As the trade war heats up, China looks to Japan’s past for lessons

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China should learn from Japan’s experience of trade tensions with America. First, it must get its domestic policy response right

far from China’s mind in its trade dispute with America. A few months ago, when negotiations looked on track, staunch nationalists warned of echoes with the “unequal treaties” that foreign powers had forced upon China in the 19th century. In recent weeks the breakdown in talks has led state propagandists to draw comparisons with the Korean war of the 1950s, a bloody struggle between China and America. But the analogy that haunts Chinese economists does not involve China itself.

The case against the Plaza accord is that it set Japan on a path to doom. To counter the effect of a strong yen, an obvious drag on exports, Japan slashed interest rates and unleashed fiscal stimulus. These moves brought about an economic rebound. But they also generated asset bubbles: stock and land prices tripled within five years. In 1990 these bubbles burst and the economy slumped, never to recover its former mojo.

As the International Monetary Fund has argued, there were at least two other factors that could have led to a different outcome. Excessive stimulus, by itself, did not guarantee that Japan would suffer an asset bubble. It was that much more dangerous when combined with financial deregulation, which led banks to lend more to property developers and homebuyers. And the bursting of the bubble did not guarantee that Japan would suffer a lost decade, let alone three.

 

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Its catastrophic for respective consumers. It a blessing for us, developing countries if we seize the moment... Soya beans alone are in Billion USD export to China.

Trump's trying to stop the China's raising, however even if not only Trump but also Franklin and Jefferson try to stop China it is not gonna happen. Never ever it will happen. USA must sign a good deal with China If it wanna keep stay strong in the long term. TradeWar

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