Arctic could become 'ice-free' within a decade

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While summer sea ice loss in the Arctic is inevitable, it can be reversed if the planet cools down, researchers say.

The Arctic could see summer days with practically no sea ice as early as the next couple of years, according to a new study out of the University of Colorado Boulder., suggest that the first ice-free day in the Arctic could occur over 10 years earlier than previous projections, which focused on when the region would be ice-free for a month or more. The trend remains consistent under all future emission scenarios.

They found that the first day when sea ice coverage dips below the 1-square-kilometer threshold would occur on average four years earlier than the monthly averages, but could occur up to 18 years earlier. Jahn said greenhouse gas emissions are the main contributors to sea ice loss. A decrease in snow and ice cover increases the amount of heat from sunlight absorbed by the ocean, exacerbating ice melt and warming in the Arctic.

While an ice-free Arctic is inevitable, Jahn said future emissions levels will still determine how often the conditions occur. Under an intermediate emissions scenario, a path the current society is on, the Arctic might become ice-free only during late summer and early fall from August to October. But under the highest emissions scenario, the Arctic could be ice-free for up to nine months by late this century.

 

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