AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Pennsylvania's presidential and state primaries

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will go before voters Tuesday in Pennsylvania’s presidential primaries, a prelude to the November general election, when the commonwealth is expected to once again play a critical role in the race for the White House. Further down the ballot, voters will also select nominees in competitive primaries for Congress, the state legislature and three statewide offices.

The Associated Press will provide coverage for the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries, as well as 48 additional races down the ballot. Biden and Dean Phillips will appear on the Democratic presidential ballot, while Trump and Nikki Haley will appear on the Republican ballot. Voters in both primaries are also given the option to write in a candidate. The AP will also provide coverage for contested primaries for attorney general, auditor, treasurer, U.S.

Pennsylvania’s 159 pledged Democratic delegates are allocated according to the national party’s standard rules. Thirty-five at-large delegates are allocated in proportion to the statewide vote, as are 19 PLEO delegates, or “party leaders and elected officials.” The state’s 17 congressional districts have a combined 105 delegates at stake, which are allocated in proportion to the vote results in each district.

In the presidential race, Biden and Trump are the favorites in their primaries as neither candidate faces a credible challenge. The first indications that they are winning statewide on a level consistent with the overwhelming margins seen in most other contests held this year may be sufficient to determine the statewide winners. For other statewide primaries, the key jurisdictions to watch are the vote-rich counties of Philadelphia, Allegheny, Montgomery, Bucks, Delaware, Lancaster and Chester.

As of April 15, there were more than 8.7 million registered voters in Pennsylvania, about 45% Democrats and 40% Republicans. In the 2022 midterm primaries, turnout was about 15% of registered voters in both the Democratic and Republican primaries. About 42% of votes in the Democratic primary that year were cast before Election Day, compared with about 11% in the Republican primary.

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